📰Market Update

All Tied Up

We’ve got ourselves a close race, folks.

In two weeks, Harris’ odds of winning the election went from 38% to 49% - she even led Trump for a brief period.

5 of the 6 largest swing states are within 10 points.

Vivek Ramaswamy Says Traders Are Going Long Harris, Short Stock Market

A video clip was posted by Vivek Ramaswamy on the topic of taxing unrealized capital gains. While talking about the potential ramifications of such a policy, he explained the recent dip in the stock market might have more connections to Kamala’s rise as an election candidate than many would think.

He suggested many market participants are taking a specific trade: they’re buying Harris’ election odds on prediction markets, and selling stocks.

Polymarket Has Highest Volume Day in Prediction Market History

📈Trending Markets

The market is expressing a tossup election in several ways - one of them being the speculated margin of victory of the Electoral College. As of today, the market seems to believe in a tight race.

The highest chance outcomes are that either party wins by 65-104 Electoral College votes. The market doesn’t appear to have much confidence in either outcome, as both are priced in around 15%.

✨New Markets

After multiple suspects were arrested for planning a terror attack at a Taylor Swift concert, a new market popped up on whether Taylor Swift will cancel more dates.

Also, NFL Football markets are firing up again. 🏈

💎Our Picks This Week

This week we have a newer market - liquidity is shallow, meaning there’s not a lot of betting action yet.

We are less than 90 days from the Presidential Election. The possibility of 3 debates between Trump and Harris is low. We’ll take NO on the market for 3 debates between the candidates.