📰Market Update

Election Betting Now Legal in US

In the early 1900’s, a financial regulator imposed a prohibition on gambling companies that prevented their customers from betting on election results.

In November, US-based prediction market platform Kalshi sued the regulator, and last week the judge overturned the prohibition. Here’s the full scoop.

Now, For the first time in over 100 years, election betting is legal in the United States.

If you’re a US citizen and want to use prediction markets, now you can! Kalshi is the only legal prediction market in the US, so it’s the best place to start.

Create a Kalshi account and place a prediction to instantly earn $25.

Kamala Takes the Lead Across Prediction Markets Post-Debate

It appears there will not be a third debate between the two candidates after this Trump post on Truth Social.

Prediction markets already anticipated there would not be another debate - the odds remain mostly unchanged.

Interactive Brokers Announces Plan to Launch Election Betting Market After Kalshi Wins Big Case

📈Trending Markets

Kamala’s odds of winning the popular vote have trended up after the debate, now at 75%.

✨New Markets

This week: College football is back, European Central Bank interest rate cuts, and September inflation data.

💎Our Pick This Week

Recap: On Monday, we provided our readers with a 200% win opportunity by correctly predicting that Trump & Harris would shake hands at the debate. They did - if you made this prediction, reply to this email and let us know!

Which AI chatbot is the “best”? A common way to measure the competence of an AI Language Learning Model (LLM) is through an Elo rating system.

Current Elo scores between LLMs are extremely close, much closer than the current odds on Kalshi, as shown in the video below:

LLMs across the board have made significant advancements this year - OpenAI is the most well-known LLM, but Grok and Claude are certainly more helpful than OpenAI at certain tasks.

We believe the market is overestimating OpenAI’s chance of being the best LLM at the end of the year, due to recent developments from competitors. We’ll take NO on OpenAI’s GPT being the best LLM at the end of the year.