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🗳️Democratic Election Lead Evaporates: What Happened?

🗳️Democratic Election Lead Evaporates: What Happened?

Plus New DNC Markets & Our Picks This Week

Prediction Pulse
August 20, 2024

📰Market Update

Democrat Lead Evaporates After Harris Posts Policies

Kamala Harris revealed the policies on which she’s running, and betting markets nearly erased the 9 point lead Democrats had just days ago.

The race is now neck-and-neck. Notably, the Pennsylvania market odds on Polymarket dropped from 60-40 (in favor of Democrats) to within 8 points.

It appears there were a few typos in the policy document.

The official DNC platform has been released and it makes at least five mentions of “Biden’s second term.”
Tough look for the Democrat copy editors.
— Greg Price (@greg_price11)
3:35 PM • Aug 19, 2024

Will Kamala's Odds Improve or Decline After the DNC?

Fed Jackson Hole Conference Comes Into Focus After Poor Economic Data

The Federal Reserve will hold it’s annual Jackson Hole meeting this week. After poor jobs data and other signs of a weakening economy, the market has increased it’s expectations on an interest rate cut after the Fed’s September meeting.

Expect interest rate markets to move this week, depending on what Jerome Powell says (or doesn’t say) in his press conference on Friday.

Polymarket: Crypto App of the Year?

Hard to argue that @Polymarket is not the crypto app of the year.
It is on track to reach $475 million in volume and 75,000 new accounts in August alone.
It is universally cited by pollsters, pundits, normies, and campaigns.
Usage and relevance are only going to accelerate as… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Nick Garcia (@NickDGarcia)
8:02 PM • Aug 18, 2024

The Democratic National Convention is this week, and bettors are having a field day with bets on who will attend, what speakers will say, and the length of speeches.

✨New Markets

A market was created just hours ago on whether RFK will drop out of the Presidential race before November.

💎Our Picks This Week

Barrack Obama will be speaking tonight at the DNC. The market isn’t very confident that he’ll mention Obamacare (or the Affordable Care Act). Obamacare was one of the President’s most visible accomplishments, and this policy was installed with Biden as the Vice President.

When Obama mentions accomplishments from 2020 onward, we believe it is very likely he will mention Biden’s contribution to Obamacare, and this market should be priced higher. We’ll take YES on a mention of the Affordable Care Act.

🗳️Democratic Election Lead Evaporates: What Happened?

Plus New DNC Markets & Our Picks This Week

📰Market Update

Democrat Lead Evaporates After Harris Posts Policies

Kamala Harris revealed the policies on which she’s running, and betting markets nearly erased the 9 point lead Democrats had just days ago.

The race is now neck-and-neck. Notably, the Pennsylvania market odds on Polymarket dropped from 60-40 (in favor of Democrats) to within 8 points.

It appears there were a few typos in the policy document.

Will Kamala's Odds Improve or Decline After the DNC?

Fed Jackson Hole Conference Comes Into Focus After Poor Economic Data

The Federal Reserve will hold it’s annual Jackson Hole meeting this week. After poor jobs data and other signs of a weakening economy, the market has increased it’s expectations on an interest rate cut after the Fed’s September meeting.

Expect interest rate markets to move this week, depending on what Jerome Powell says (or doesn’t say) in his press conference on Friday.

Polymarket: Crypto App of the Year?

📈Trending Markets

The Democratic National Convention is this week, and bettors are having a field day with bets on who will attend, what speakers will say, and the length of speeches.

✨New Markets

A market was created just hours ago on whether RFK will drop out of the Presidential race before November.

💎Our Picks This Week

Barrack Obama will be speaking tonight at the DNC. The market isn’t very confident that he’ll mention Obamacare (or the Affordable Care Act). Obamacare was one of the President’s most visible accomplishments, and this policy was installed with Biden as the Vice President.

When Obama mentions accomplishments from 2020 onward, we believe it is very likely he will mention Biden’s contribution to Obamacare, and this market should be priced higher. We’ll take YES on a mention of the Affordable Care Act.