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- 🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #2: Tight Race for Democratic VP
🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #2: Tight Race for Democratic VP
Plus Venezuela Election Intel, Our Weekly Prediction Pick
Prediction Pulse
July 30, 2024
📰Market Update
Tight Race for Democratic VP Nominee
Mark Kelly’s odds of a VP pick were 1% less than two weeks ago, and has now flipped Shapiro with a 3% lead.
Chaos and Alleged Fraud During Venezuelan Presidential Election
Polymarket odds of incumbent Maduro winning dropped from 80% to 50% overnight, ultimately returning to 90% as of this morning.
Last night, tens of thousands of Venezuelans tuned into Polymarket for a source of accurate, real-time truth about who would win their election.
In an election mired by accusations of fraud and rampant media misinformation, it was painfully clear why the world needs Polymarket… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Polymarket (@Polymarket)
3:48 PM • Jul 29, 2024
After violence in the streets and voting centers refusing to deliver electoral records, the governments of Argentina, Peru, Chile and other countries have made public statements that they will not recognize the current results of the election.
This guy, who works for Maduro, took this selfie during the counting of the votes yesterday in Venezuela.
He forgot that the real results were on the screens. You can see how Maduro lost, by a lot, every state.
I am pretty sure he won’t make it alive another day.
— Ada Lluch 🇪🇸 (@ada_lluch)
10:22 AM • Jul 29, 2024
Solana Protocol Drift to Launch U.S. Election Prediction Market
Why we're launching a US election predictions market on Drift:
- Prediction markets are the truth settlement marketplace
- We can become the place where people go to observe crowd tendencies and opinion shifts
- We're on a fully open-source blockchain that no one can manipulate… x.com/i/web/status/1…— cindy (@cindyleowtt)
1:28 PM • Jul 29, 2024
📈Trending Markets
Close races in major swing states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan.
✨New Markets
More Olympics events today - the 100m race is especially close. Anyone know anything about the Hammer Throw?
💎Our Picks This Week
After the Presidential debate, serious concerns began to grow regarding Biden’s health. Polymarket even launched a market on whether or not Biden would finish his Presidential term. After this tweet from Laura Loomer, odds that Biden would finish his term fell to 59%. The odds have since increased to 73%, but with Biden’s clearly deteriorating health and the Democratic party’s desire to push Kamala forward, we believe this is a mispricing and is too optimistic. We’ll take NO for $0.28.
