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- 🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #1: Obamas Endorse Harris
🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #1: Obamas Endorse Harris
Plus New Trending Markets, Our Weekly Prediction Pick
Prediction Pulse
July 26, 2024
📰Market Update
Barrack and Michelle Obama endorse Kamala Harris for President
JUST IN: Barack and Michelle Obama endorse Kamala Harris for president
— BNO News (@BNONews)
9:03 AM • Jul 26, 2024
This brings Kamala’s Nominee chances up to 97%, according to Polymarket.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows VP Harris leading Trump 44% to 42% in the US presidential race.
But Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, shows Trump leading Harris 63% to 33%.
PREDICTION MARKET = SUPERIOR TO POLLING.
— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke)
4:40 PM • Jul 24, 2024
~3 months away from us election. resurfacing this wild statistic:
since 1936, the performance of the s&p500 in the 3 months before the election predicts the outcome of the election accurately 83% of the time.
that is, stocks go up, the incumbent wins, stocks go down, the… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— qw (@QwQiao)
12:58 PM • Jul 25, 2024
The prediction market platform @Polymarket just crossed $1B in total value processed, making it the most successful crypto consumer app to date. 👏
The secret sauce: Polymarket leverages Account Abstraction (using @safe Smart Accounts) for easy onboarding and frictionless UX. ✨
— lukasschor.eth (@SchorLukas)
7:15 PM • Jul 24, 2024
📈Trending Markets
The largest moves in markets this week were Kamala Harris being the Democratic nominee after the endorsement from the Obamas, and Biden’s odds of finishing his term increased after his public address on Wednesday.
✨New Markets
The Paris Olympics begin today, and there are new markets being created for many of the more highly anticipated events.
💎Our Picks This Week
In seven of the last eight elections, Democrats have won the popular vote. In 2020, the voting gap was only about 4%, with Biden at 51.3% and Trump at 46.9% of the popular vote.
Call us contrarians, but we think this trend could change this November. With Kamala being a surprise candidate, and not polling favorably, Trump has a better chance at winning the popular vote than what is currently being expressed:
