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🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #6: Polymarket User Grabs a Million on Trump's X Appearance

🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #6: Polymarket User Grabs a Million on Trump's X Appearance

Plus Coinbase Fights for Your Right to Predict

Prediction Pulse
August 13, 2024

📰Market Update

Coinbase Fights for Your Right to Predict

In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a ban on prediction markets, effectively shutting off U.S. customer access to prediction contracts.

Opponents of this proposal have called it a “stunning overreach”, and some sued the CFTC.

Last week, Coinbase wrote a letter to the CFTC, urging them to reconsider the broad ban and instead focus on a contract-by-contract basis. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss also submitted a letter to the CFTC.

Decentralized prediction markets are a significant innovation with real public utility. They provide valuable information on future events that is rooted in financial accountability. Unlike polls, pundits, or expert opinions, they require participants to put their money where… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Cameron Winklevoss (@cameron)
3:54 AM • Aug 10, 2024

Members of Dragonfly Capital, Crypto.com, Robinhood and others are standing with Coinbase, claiming overreach from the CFTC.

If these entities are able to convince the CFTC to withdraw the proposal, prediction market usage in the United States could explode.

Polymarket User Goes Viral After Trump & Elon X Space - bama124 Bet Analysis

This @Polymarket user walked away with close to $1m guessing correctly on what words @realDonaldTrump would or would not say during the @XSpaces with @elonmusk
polymarket.com/profile/0xe5c8…
— Sam Reynolds (@thesamreynolds)
3:38 AM • Aug 13, 2024

Here is the user’s profile, with their highest value bets. Click on the image to see all of the user’s open bets.

Bet highlight: bama124 bet $50,000 on Trump winning the popular vote, which is currently priced as a very low probability outcome.

Polymarket Takes Another Step Toward the “Search Engine of the Future” with Perplexity AI Partnership

When I first built Polymarket, I would tell people I was building the search engine for the future.
Coming to life.
@perplexity_ai 🤝 @Polymarket
— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan)
5:12 PM • Aug 12, 2024

Kamala is pulling ahead in several major swing states.

✨New Markets

After hosting Trump on X, Elon offered to host Kamala on an X space in the future.

Happy to host Kamala on an 𝕏 Spaces too
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
4:39 AM • Aug 13, 2024

After the post, a market spun up on whether or not Kamala would show up. While this market is still quite small in liquidity terms, it appears the market doesn’t believe Kamala will take Elon up on the offer.

💎Our Picks This Week

In the 2020 election, Biden won most of the swing states - but seven of the swing states were won by less than three points.

We believe the market is too optimistic on Harris’ chances of winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We’ll take NO on Kamala winning all of these states.

🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #6: Polymarket User Grabs a Million on Trump's X Appearance

Plus Coinbase Fights for Your Right to Predict

📰Market Update

Coinbase Fights for Your Right to Predict

In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a ban on prediction markets, effectively shutting off U.S. customer access to prediction contracts.

Opponents of this proposal have called it a “stunning overreach”, and some sued the CFTC.

Last week, Coinbase wrote a letter to the CFTC, urging them to reconsider the broad ban and instead focus on a contract-by-contract basis. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss also submitted a letter to the CFTC.

Members of Dragonfly Capital, Crypto.com, Robinhood and others are standing with Coinbase, claiming overreach from the CFTC.

If these entities are able to convince the CFTC to withdraw the proposal, prediction market usage in the United States could explode.

Polymarket User Goes Viral After Trump & Elon X Space - bama124 Bet Analysis

Here is the user’s profile, with their highest value bets. Click on the image to see all of the user’s open bets.

Bet highlight: bama124 bet $50,000 on Trump winning the popular vote, which is currently priced as a very low probability outcome.

Polymarket Takes Another Step Toward the “Search Engine of the Future” with Perplexity AI Partnership

📈Trending Markets

Kamala is pulling ahead in several major swing states.

✨New Markets

After hosting Trump on X, Elon offered to host Kamala on an X space in the future.

After the post, a market spun up on whether or not Kamala would show up. While this market is still quite small in liquidity terms, it appears the market doesn’t believe Kamala will take Elon up on the offer.

💎Our Picks This Week

In the 2020 election, Biden won most of the swing states - but seven of the swing states were won by less than three points.

We believe the market is too optimistic on Harris’ chances of winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We’ll take NO on Kamala winning all of these states.