📰Market Update

U.S. Recession Fears Ramp Up

It’s been a rough month for global markets. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, resulting in the global unwinding of a popular carry trade. Global conflict also appears to be rising, with tensions running high in Europe and the Middle East. Lastly, large tech companies like Dell and Intel are laying off tens of thousands of employees.

In the last 4 weeks, over $6T has been wiped out from the global stock market.

A market spun up last week on whether the Federal Reserve would hold an “Emergency” (read as “unscheduled”) meeting where an interest rate cut is announced. The market climbed as high as 50% before settling below 20%.

The odds of a technical U.S. recession as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth - are still quite low according to Polymarket.

Democratic VP Wild Ride Comes to An End

A chaotic market is finding resolution this morning as Harris picked Minnesota’s Tim Walz to be her running mate.

12 hours before the announcement, Polymarket odds began favoring Tim Walz.

However, even as of 8:00am, many market participants believed there was a 60% chance that Josh Shapiro would be the VP pick.

Polymarket Receives More Web Traffic Than the Largest Crypto Protocols Combined

📈Trending Markets

For the past two weeks, Kamala’s odds of winning the Election’s popular vote have gone up and to the right. Up to nearly 70% from 25% in late July.

✨New Markets

A mixture of fun Olympic bets and not-so-fun global conflict bets.

💎Our Picks This Week

While the past few weeks have certainly been tumultuous, we don’t believe it warrants an “emergency” intervention from the Federal Reserve. This specific market requires two things to resolve to Yes: Firstly, the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates. Second, the Fed must also call an unscheduled meeting. While rate cuts are becoming increasingly likely, it’s unlikely that the Fed needs an emergency meeting. We’ll take NO on this market.