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- 🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #3: Shapiro Rockets to Front of VP Race
🗳️Prediction Pulse Issue #3: Shapiro Rockets to Front of VP Race
Plus Polymarket's Explosive Growth Data and Election Odds Tighten
Prediction Pulse
August 02, 2024
📰Market Update
Shapiro’s Odds of VP Pick Skyrocket After Cancelled Events
Potential VP pick Josh Shapiro cancelled fundraising events over the weekend. After the schedule changes, the market believed these were cancelled because a VP pick call was coming.
Along with the event cancellations, the Harris campaign announced the start of a campaign trail with her VP starting on Tuesday in Philadelphia, further fueling speculation that Shapiro could be her running mate given Pennsylvania (a huge swing state) is his home state.
Contesting of Venezuelan Presidential Election Outcome Continues
Polymarket odds of incumbent Maduro’s victory are dropping after a wild week in Venezuela. Maduro’s party has claimed victory, but several nation states including Brazil, Colombia and Mexico have publicly requested to see the vote tally sheets.
"Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election"
Due to the confusion and lack of clear outcome, the Polymarket betting market has seen the initial outcome (Maduro’s claimed victory) disputed.
Polymarket Investor Lays Out Data Behind Polymarket’s Growth Explosion
🧵 1/ In light of @Polymarket's recent explosive growth, the ParaFi team has been analyzing on-chain data to understand two critical questions:
1) What factors are driving Polymarket’s recent traction?
2) To what degree is Polymarket’s growth driven by the U.S. election?
As… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— ParaFi Capital (@paraficapital)
7:56 PM • Aug 1, 2024
📈Trending Markets
U.S. election odds begin to tighten as Democrats rally behind Kamala.
Trump now has his narrowest lead since May.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket)
3:57 PM • Aug 2, 2024
predictit is the one prediction market that shows the most favorable odds for kamala
meanwhile if u google “election betting odds” predictit is also the most cited one by all msm
coincidence or nah
— qw (@QwQiao)
12:03 PM • Aug 2, 2024
✨New Markets
A few proposed markets look like drinking games as bettors try to predict what presidential candidates will say in public.
💎Our Picks This Week
Of all the prediction markets, PredictIt stands out as having the lowest odds for a Trump presidential victory. While Trump’s odds have decreased significantly since the attempted assassination, PredictIt appears to be an outlier here and provides better-than-usual odds for those who believe Trump will return to the White House.
