📰Market Update

The Market Has No Idea What the Federal Reserve Will Do Next

The Federal Reserve has a difficult job. They must:

• Avoid a US recession

• Prevent runaway inflation

• Keep the stock market and the labor market afloat

They manage this job through interest rates. The entire economy is dependent on interest rates - everything from mortgages & car loans to the price of groceries. The latest interest rate update is coming tomorrow from the Federal Reserve’s meeting. The meeting is a big deal, even if it’s not the most exciting topic in the world.

Our Prediction Pulse Pick of the Week predicted that the Federal Reserve would be more aggressive in cutting rates, due to labor market weakness.

After the latest data and opinions from news outlets (click here to see a helpful timeline), prediction markets have caught up to us - participants now believe that the Fed will be more aggressive.

Harris Takes Control of Pennsylvania

Former President Trump lost some ground this week across the board. Perhaps most importantly is Pennsylvania, the largest swing state. Trump was leading for weeks, but has now dipped below 50%, 2 points behind Harris.

Kalshi Users Finding Ways to Keep Hot Dog Costs Down

Groceries have gotten more expensive for almost everyone - except those who eat Costco hot dogs. The prices of Costco hot dogs remain unchanged after this hilarious interaction between the co-founders in 2018.

📈Trending Markets

A few weeks into college football, Georgia is the favorite to win the Championship game.

✨New Markets

The very first legal election market is live on Kalshi - US residents can now legally predict election markets.

Get $25 instantly for predicting your first market on Kalshi

💎Our Pick This Week

Kalshi currently predicts Taylor Swift will the the Top Artist on Spotify this year, by a large margin.

Taylor Swift is clearly one of the biggest artists in the world right now, and she’s been dominating Spotify streams, thanks to an album release earlier this year.

Taylor won’t have any new music coming until 2025. The Weeknd, however, will be releasing an album before the year is over. When a big artist drops an album, it typically receives a huge boost in streams.

Given The Weeknd’s higher number of monthly listeners & listener growth, combined with the success of his last two Spotify-topping albums, he has a real shot at closing the gap behind Taylor. Even if he doesn’t become #1, the album release should reprice the market in his favor. We’ll take YES on The Weeknd being Spotify’s Top Artist in 2024.