🗳️Trump Storming Ahead in Major Swing States

Plus Did We Find Elon's Polymarket Account?

Author

Prediction Pulse
October 08, 2024

📰Market Update

Trump Storms Ahead

The former President is experiencing quite a strong October, starting the month behind Harris but is now 6% ahead.

Major swing states that Harris once controlled are now within 6%, and Trump has taken a commanding lead in Pennsylvania.

A Closer Look at Polymarket’s Biggest Trump Holder

Fredi9999 is the largest holder of Trump shares on Polymarket, and Domer conducts an analysis on the account. Is it Elon Musk?

Kalshi Election Markets Are Live

Election markets are officially live on Kalshi, the only legal prediction market platform in the United States.

If you’ve been wanting to use prediction markets but live in the States, you’re going to love Kalshi.

Get $25 instantly after making your first prediction. Capitalize on this offer by quickly signing up right here.

The NBA season kicks off tomorrow, and Polymarket users have the Boston Celtics as the heavy favorite to win the Championship.

✨New Markets

Trump has a big Pennsylvania rally tomorrow, and there’s a mention market with 18 options to predict what he will (or won’t) say.

💎Our Pick This Week

The HBO Documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery will be released later today. The documentary claims to identify Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin.

There’s a market for predictors to express who they believe the creator of Bitcoin is, but there’s an important distinction. Because the true identity of Satoshi is unknown, the outcome of this market will be decided by who the creator of the documentary believes is the creator, not who may have actually created the currency (unless the documentary brings irrefutable proof, which is unlikely given Satoshi’s identity has remained anonymous to this day).

While the market believes it could have been a group effort to launch the currency, the producer of the documentary confirms they land on a specific name rather than a group of people.

Here’s a way to capitalize on multiple outcomes. Nick Szabo and Adam Back both appear in the documentary trailer several times, and an interviewer says to Adam there’s evidence of him being Satoshi.

We’re taking small positions in both the Nick Szabo and Adam Back markets - both have a lot of upside and they’re the leading options.