📰Market Update

Two Weeks from Election: Trump with Record Lead

Trump is now 30% ahead of Harris. There are still two weeks to go, but this lead is significant. For reference, the night before the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden’s odds of victory on Polymarket were 60%.

Trump is also approaching 40% odds of winning the popular vote. A Republican candidate has not won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.

Polymarket User is Tens of Millions Deep in Trump Market

Trump Leads in Every Major Swing State

📈Trending Markets

RFK Jr. dropped out of the presidential race, but there’s a small group of forecasters who believe he might win 1-3% of the popular vote.

✨New Markets

After a bank failure in Oklahoma last week, forecasters believe more bank failures could be coming.

💎Our Pick This Week

Last week there was speculation that Trump would do a Joe Rogan podcast after Trump confirmed he’d go on Rogan. The market for this outcome skyrocketed to 75%.

Since then, it’s been quiet on both the Trump and Rogan front, and the market has lost confidence. YES shares are now trading around 54%.

While it’s possible that the podcast could happen after the election and the election is only two weeks away, it’s in Trump’s best interest to get exposure with Joe’s 10M+ audience before voting day.

We believe the current forecast is undervalued. We’ll take YES on Trump going on Joe Rogan before the election.

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