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- 🗳️What 2025 Holds for the Trump Administration, According to Polymarket
🗳️What 2025 Holds for the Trump Administration, According to Polymarket
Plus a top Polymarket user sustains heavy losses
Prediction Pulse
November 21, 2024
📰Market Update
Polymarket users are forecasting what the first few months in office could look like for the new administration and for those living in the US.
A particularly interesting market is whether Trump will end taxes on tips. This was a pillar of his campaign, but odds of sit at just 40%. The reason for this low probability is that this specific market resolves on April 29th, 2025. Likely too soon to sign the campaign promise into law.
One of the markets no one is sure of: FDA Commissioner. Probabilities are low across the board, signalling a lack of confidence in who Trump might pick.
Polymarket User is Down $5M
User zxgngl is one of Polymarket’s best all-time traders. The user sustained large losses after forecasting Joe Biden to win the election in July, and on Mike Tyson winning the fight against Jake Paul.
This guy on Polymarket just lost 3.6 million dollars betting on Mike Tyson to win! In July he lost 2.1 million dollars betting on Joe Biden to be the US president 🤯
— 13yr old with a credit card (@13yroldwithcc)
5:40 AM • Nov 16, 2024
Surprises: Market for Treasury Secretary is a Roller Coaster
Just four days ago, Forecasters were nearly 80% sure that Scott Bessent would be Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary. Since then, Bessent’s odds have fallen to 40%, and Kevin Warsh’s odds went from 11% on November 18th to 50%, and now back to 25%.
📈Trending Markets
The Lions overtook the Chiefs in the bid for Super Bowl Champion on Sunday. Two months ago, the odds of the Lions winning was 6%.
✨New Markets
Matt Gaetz is the standout of Trump’s confirmed picks. While most candidates are almost certain in the eyes of Polymarket users, Gaetz is the only potential pick lower than 50% odds.
